This is a great position because it's easy to toy around with obvious variants and see the effect these changes have. I knew Nack would speak up with a variant or two and almost originally told him not to worry, I had it covered. I thought better of it though never knowing what Nack might throw. First, here's the original with rollout.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB---D-B-AAdB-a-b-d--bAB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/5 | eq: +0.061 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.59% (G:19.50% B:1.24%)
49.41% (G:16.15% B:1.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.046...+0.075) - [99.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/18 23/18 | eq: +0.034 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.79% (G:16.88% B:0.89%)
49.21% (G:16.42% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.018...+0.049) - [0.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13230523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Above the plays are fairly close and even 3 ply got it wrong. I didn't know which one to post as 'the original' but due to how close the plays were I chose this. The two point is considered a 'deep point' and owning it means you have a harder time forming a prime as you typically own two points that are six pips away from each other. The four point is part of that compact prime that is good both for priming and for attacking if needed. The three point falls somewhere in between and these factors are at play on both sides of the board here.
If we give the opponent his four point instead of his three point it's now close to a no brainer. We need to create a wedge in his offensive position.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB---D-B-AAdB-a-b-d-b-AB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 23/18 | eq: -0.002 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.85% (G:15.45% B:0.65%)
50.15% (G:15.69% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.022...+0.018) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/5 | eq: -0.059 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.79% (G:18.59% B:1.24%)
52.21% (G:17.55% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.079...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13230523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Reverting to the original but making it so we only have two checkers back freeing our thrid checker to the midpoint you might think our need of an advanced anchor would diminish however popping that checker to the midpoint also drastically changes the race so that we'd love to be semi escaped with all our back men. It also effects our timing should we get involved in a pvp situation. Now anchoring out pulls into the lead.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB---D-B-AAdC-a-b-d--bAA-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 23/18 | eq: +0.322 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.11% (G:17.26% B:0.67%)
42.89% (G:11.43% B:0.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.306...+0.337) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/5 | eq: +0.278 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.89% (G:20.47% B:1.38%)
44.11% (G:13.83% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.263...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13230523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I again gave the opponent his four point instead of his three point as in the original but I backed up our inner board point to the three point also. I expected this to have a bigger effect than it did in comparison to owning our two point. (there is no doubt about the correct play in the rollouts however there is enough variance left that the plays could significantly change in how correct/the equity difference if I were to extend them)
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-B--D-B-AAdB-a-b-d-b-AB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 23/18 | eq: +0.113 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.34% (G:17.27% B:0.75%)
47.66% (G:14.87% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.098...+0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/5 | eq: +0.067 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.98% (G:19.57% B:1.37%)
49.02% (G:16.39% B:1.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.052...+0.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13230523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
And now we come to Nack's variant. Moving one of the opponent's spares from his 6pt back to his 8pt makes us fear his bar point being made naturally much greater than in the other positions. As a result, it is correct to take that option away from him and anchor out.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB---D-B-AAdB-a-c-c--bAB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 23/18 | eq: +0.071 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.13% (G:16.75% B:0.70%)
48.87% (G:15.04% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.051...+0.092) - [99.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/5 | eq: +0.023 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.36% (G:18.56% B:1.19%)
50.64% (G:16.23% B:1.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.001...+0.044) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13230523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Lastly something worth mentioning is "what if we were anchored on the 23pt instead of the 24pt changing nothing else but that lone pip?" This is a question for every position I've posted as it makes a significant change always leaning towards making the 5pt now. We have less overall fear of being attack and being primed so we can focus on offense.
Stick