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White 6/8 Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 12 June 2019, at 2:02 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day #1 - Rollouts and Variants (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB---D-B-AAdB-a-c-c--bAB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant (A White 6pt spare has been moved back to her 8pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/18 23/18	eq: +0.073
	Player: Opponent: 51.28% (G:16.96% B:0.75%) 48.72% (G:14.64% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.059...+0.088) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/5 10/5	eq: +0.019 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 49.30% (G:18.66% B:1.18%) 50.70% (G:15.96% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.004...+0.034) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92990032 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Nice variants and analysis; always appreciated. Regarding my own (diagrammed above)...

And now we come to Nack's variant. Moving one of the opponent's spares from his 6pt back to his 8pt makes us fear his bar point being made naturally much greater than in the other positions. As a result, it is correct to take that option away from him and anchor out.

Yes, the 6/8 change adds 61 to make the bar point (i.e., on the immediate roll, without breaking the 8pt). But it also adds 31 53 to make the 5pt, and 42 (64) to make the 4pt.

That is, after 65P, any of the above five rolls cause Blue to "regret" not making an advanced anchor when the roll allowed him to do so. Hence the reversal of best play and .081 swing in margin.

Nack

P.S. FWIW, 65@ also blocks White from making her 5pt with 11 in the variant and not in the original.

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day #1
  Stick -- Sunday, 9 June 2019, at 11:50 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #1
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 3:15 a.m.
  • 65@ or 65P?
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 5:32 a.m.
  • Position of the Day #1
    neilkaz -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 6:02 a.m.
  • Position of the Day #1
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 3:21 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #1
    Justin Nowell -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 5:58 p.m.
  • VARIANT with 2-pip change
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 8:26 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #1
    ah_clem -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 10:45 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #1 - Rollouts and Variants
    Stick -- Tuesday, 11 June 2019, at 9:50 p.m.
    • White 6/8 Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 12 June 2019, at 2:02 a.m.