This is a position I expected most to get correct not (solely) because of the size of the difference in plays, but I find some positions are much more clear when viewed as a problem than if they had come up in the flow of a long match or session for example. It's a lot easier to pick apart variables when you're given a problem and that's all you have to think about. In the flow of a session it's easier to get caught up and potentially not notice the red flags that are telling you what to do. Lesson is the old saying, treat every position as a new position. Somehow you have to wipe your brain at the start of every turn.
The fact that there are two blots that you threaten directly in the outfield creates a huge swing not only on the fanning numbers if you switch but also even when he enters you still have a shot generally at one blot or you can continue your attack against the back checker with eleven men in the zone and all of them aiming at open points. If we were to lift either of those blots to safety now 13/7(2) is the likely winner.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--BCC-C--aaBb--b-b-bbBb-:2:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 23/20(2) 4/1*(2) | eq: +0.178 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.72% (G:22.73% B:0.63%)
41.28% (G:8.33% B:0.23%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/7(2) | eq: +0.035 (-0.143) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.87% (G:13.69% B:0.40%)
42.13% (G:10.09% B:0.34%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 23/20(2) 13/10(2) | eq: -0.032 (-0.211) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.95% (G:10.87% B:0.26%)
46.05% (G:5.58% B:0.14%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10