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Lifting one of the blots -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 18 June 2019, at 7:50 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day #2 - Rollout (Stick)

The fact that there are two blots that you threaten directly in the outfield creates a huge swing not only on the fanning numbers if you switch but also even when he enters you still have a shot generally at one blot or you can continue your attack against the back checker with eleven men in the zone and all of them aiming at open points. If we were to lift either of those blots to safety now 13/7(2) is the likely winner.

Astute observation. Moving either blot to safety (to the 11pt, even more so to the 8pt, even more so to the 6pt) makes P (Point, 13/7(2)) the play of choice.

I had already rolled out moving (1) White's 14pt blot, and (2) White's 13pt blot, to her 11pt. The respective results are shown below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 114 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCC-C---aBc--b-b-bbBb-:2:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (White's 14pt blot is lifted to her 11pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/7(2)	eq: +0.097
	Player: Opponent: 59.86% (G:15.07% B:0.48%) 40.14% (G:10.09% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.093...+0.102) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/20(2) 4/1*(2)	eq: +0.078 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 56.52% (G:19.16% B:0.31%) 43.48% (G:9.47% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.075...+0.082) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28949094 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 115 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCC-C--a-Bc--b-b-bbBb-:2:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (White's 13pt blot is lifted to her 11pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/7(2)	eq: +0.083
	Player: Opponent: 59.33% (G:14.64% B:0.47%) 40.67% (G:10.05% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.090) - [100.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/20(2) 4/1*(2)	eq: +0.061 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 55.88% (G:18.61% B:0.27%) 44.12% (G:9.04% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.054...+0.069) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92990032 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day #2
  Stick -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 7:00 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #2
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 9:29 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #2
    ah_clem -- Monday, 10 June 2019, at 10:55 p.m.
  • Position of the Day #2
    Justin Nowell -- Tuesday, 11 June 2019, at 4:31 a.m.
  • Position of the Day #2 - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 17 June 2019, at 6:22 p.m.
    • Lifting one of the blots -- ROLLOUTS
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 18 June 2019, at 7:50 a.m.