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Opening 43, XGR++ Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 27 August 2019, at 7:38 p.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10

Opening 43, XGR++ Rollout


1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.0079
Player:
Opponent:		49.84% (G:15.43% B:0.78%)
50.16% (G:13.97% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ±0.0025 (+0.0054...+0.0104) - [97.8%]
Duration: 3 days 02 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.0042 (-0.0037)
Player:
Opponent:		49.92% (G:14.33% B:0.73%)
50.08% (G:13.70% B:0.63%)		Conf.: ±0.0026 (+0.0016...+0.0068) - [2.2%]
Duration: 13 days 03 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout224/20 13/10eq: -0.0015 (-0.0095)
Player:
Opponent:		49.87% (G:13.88% B:0.69%)
50.13% (G:13.61% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ±0.0043 (-0.0058...+0.0027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 days 02 hours 17 minutes
4.Rollout324/21 24/20eq: -0.0094 (-0.0173)
Player:
Opponent:		49.84% (G:12.67% B:0.64%)
50.16% (G:13.34% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ±0.0053 (-0.0147...-0.0041) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 days 09 hours 46 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37515191
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37515191
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++

3 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37515191
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++

Above is an XGR++ rollout for opening 43.

The nacbracs summary for this rollout, including the extra decimal place, is:

.....[D Z3.7 S9.5 U17.3] &31*10*6

This rollout provides further evidence that S (Split, 24/20 13/10) is "tied" (within .01) and reviving evidence that U (Up, 24/21 24/20) might be "well played" (within .02). I'll probably extend this rollout eventually.

The current rollout on XG Book is XGR+ (single plus) for the first two candidates and 4-ply for the third and fourth candidates (mixing plies):

.....[D Z0.8 S8.5 U21.3] &103*^12*6

It is unclear to how much of the difference between the ++ rollout and the + rollout is due to settings strength and how much is due to variance.

Nack

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