Bearoff play with 22 -- Four VARIANTS (with rollouts)

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Bearoff play with 22 -- Four VARIANTS (with rollouts)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 5 October 2019, at 1:59 a.m.

In Response To: Very subtle bearoff play (Timothy Chow)

Tim posted a bearoff position with double 2s, and followed up with rollouts AtS and for Money. In general, I'm more interested in the latter, as it applies not only to Money play but also to most match scores that arise.
Below are four related (Money) variants. Would you have made a different play in each of the four positions?

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBBBBBC------------b--b-b-:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1

1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq: +0.565
Player:
Opponent: 64.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.561...+0.569) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.2 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 4/Off(2) eq: +0.541 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 64.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.538...+0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.5 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 6/2 eq: +0.530 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent: 62.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.527...+0.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.6 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq: +0.473 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent: 58.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.001 (+0.472...+0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.2 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82672163
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBBBBBC-------------bb--b-:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2

1. Rollout¹ 4/Off(2) eq: +0.499
Player:
Opponent: 62.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.495...+0.502) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14.0 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq: +0.486 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 62.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.481...+0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.5 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 6/2 eq: +0.467 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 60.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.463...+0.471) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.0 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq: +0.455 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 57.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.452...+0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.7 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82672163
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 47

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBBBBBC------------b-b--b-:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3

1. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 6/2 eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent: 65.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.642...+0.649) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4.7 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq: +0.628 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 66.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.623...+0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.1 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 4/Off(2) eq: +0.603 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 67.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.600...+0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.8 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq: +0.475 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent: 59.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.001 (+0.474...+0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.8 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82672163
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Without changing the Black checker position, cube location, dice roll, or putting a second White checker on the bar, it is difficult to find a position whereby a fourth Black candidate play rises to the top of the rollout. However, the unusual position below works.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 48

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBBBBBC----------aa--b----:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq: +0.496
Player:
Opponent: 59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.493...+0.500) - [98.4%]
Duration: 29.0 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 4/Off(2) eq: +0.491 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent: 62.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.488...+0.494) - [1.6%]
Duration: 42.7 seconds
3. Rollout² 6/Off 2/Off eq: +0.481 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 61.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.476...+0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.7 seconds
4. Rollout² 6/4(2) 6/2 eq: +0.453 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 60.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.448...+0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.2 seconds

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82672163
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82672163
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Very subtle bearoff play
Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 28 September 2019, at 7:06 p.m.
- Very subtle bearoff play
  Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 28 September 2019, at 11:45 p.m.
- Very subtle bearoff play: Analysis
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 October 2019, at 11:58 p.m.
- Bearoff play with 22 -- Four VARIANTS (with rollouts)
  Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 5 October 2019, at 1:59 a.m.

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