OTB I've overestimated Blue's wastage at 9.5 so the decision for me was a close pass. Even just comparing to White's position (which was actually easy for me to judge as 9.5 wastage), it shouldn't really differ. I've adjusted White from ref pos |222222 which is 10 wastage. Then a gap on the 6pt is +1 but 1 checker less on the ace is -1 and 1 checker less on the deuce is -0.5 ergo 9.5 wastage. For Blue the adjustments should be similar from my experience. Going from 1 to 0 checkers on the deuce shouldn't make almost any difference. And the 6pt is still underloaded heavily compared to the other high points, so it should still be close to +1 wastage. I have to revisit my EPC counting methods... A single 6pt checker makes a huge impact here.
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| XGID=-A-BDBA-------------bcbaa-:1:-1:-1:00:4:9:0:13:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 86,84% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 86,81% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 13,16% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 13,19% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,737 | +1,417 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,871 (-0,036) | ±0,002 (+0,870..+0,873) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,907 | ±0,000 (+0,907..+0,908) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,093) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 10,1 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2