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Position of the day 5-26-23 - Rollout + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 28 May 2023, at 7:16 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the day 5-26-23 (Stick)

While all the top plays are close enough that one can't really go wrong, I was shocked to see that hitting was best. I added 9/8 in the rollout though it was never a play I personally considered OtB. We don't normally break a six prime unless we are (virtually) forced to. Making the 5pt in some manner is correct at dmp by just over 1% but for money the extra gammons of the third checker back more than compensate.

On XGR+ and XGR++ hitting is correct by ~.040.

My wild ass post mortem explanation goes something like this...obviously escaping the back checker is a huge priority but what we may not realize is that if we escape it (a lot easier to do after hitting) that at some point we will make either the 5pt or the 3pt cleanly. To bring this position home we don't need to make them both, and in that respect the made 3pt, which is easier to make, would likely be better to bear off against the opp's 23pt anchor.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 117 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-B-FBBB-ac----c-cba---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21*	eq: +0.137
	Player: Opponent: 56.65% (G:26.69% B:1.75%) 43.35% (G:8.56% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.128...+0.146) - [90.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/5(2)	eq: +0.130 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 58.47% (G:19.29% B:1.04%) 41.53% (G:7.30% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.122...+0.137) - [10.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/5(3)	eq: +0.115 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 58.15% (G:19.04% B:1.02%) 41.85% (G:7.37% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.108...+0.122) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 23 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/24 9/8 6/5(2)	eq: +0.072 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 56.64% (G:18.73% B:0.99%) 43.36% (G:7.98% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.061...+0.082) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 93539932 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 93539932 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Given what you now know, you should be confident of your play in this variant shouldn't you?

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 117 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bB-FBBB-ac----c-cba---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 11

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the day 5-26-23
  Stick -- Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 3:06 a.m.
  • Position of the day 5-26-23
    Jason Lee -- Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 5:38 a.m.
    • Position of the day 5-26-23
      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 7:44 a.m.
    • Position of the day 5-26-23
      MishyPoo -- Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Position of the day 5-26-23
    MishyPoo -- Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 2:37 p.m.
  • Position of the day 5-26-23 - Rollout + Analysis
    Stick -- Sunday, 28 May 2023, at 7:16 a.m.