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My worst PR ever!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 29 May 2023, at 10:13 p.m.

In Response To: 7a3a cube action (Timothy Chow)

The game in which this position arose is also the game that I believe holds the record for my worst PR ever (22.4) for a single game in which I had more than 20 decisions. I was blue here and did not double. Shown below is my long sequence of cube errors.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC--A--bCa--bbcbbB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.99% (G:19.47% B:0.46%) 49.68% (G:20.66% B:0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.01% (G:12.14% B:0.86%) 50.32% (G:12.49% B:0.99%)
Cubeless Equities +0.144 +0.997
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.781 (-0.216)±0.010 (+0.770..+0.791)
Redouble/Take:+0.997±0.014 (+0.984..+1.011)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.003)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:65.6%
Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBCAA---bBa--bbcbbB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.36% (G:21.22% B:0.57%) 51.21% (G:22.85% B:0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.64% (G:10.24% B:0.63%) 48.79% (G:10.52% B:0.78%)
Cubeless Equities +0.207 +1.141
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.817 (-0.183)±0.009 (+0.808..+0.826)
Redouble/Take:+1.141 (+0.141)±0.013 (+1.127..+1.154)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BCBBB----bBa--bbcbbB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.99% (G:22.42% B:0.57%) 51.69% (G:22.78% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.01% (G:10.02% B:0.64%) 48.31% (G:10.04% B:0.92%)
Cubeless Equities +0.235 +1.157
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.830 (-0.170)±0.009 (+0.821..+0.838)
Redouble/Take:+1.157 (+0.157)±0.014 (+1.143..+1.170)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BCBBBA---bAa--bbcbbB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.55% (G:22.88% B:0.55%) 51.26% (G:23.76% B:0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.45% (G:9.60% B:0.71%) 48.74% (G:9.27% B:1.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.234 +1.178
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.815 (-0.185)±0.009 (+0.805..+0.824)
Redouble/Take:+1.178 (+0.178)±0.013 (+1.164..+1.191)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 122
7 point match
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBCBCB-A--b----bccbbB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 45.22% (G:16.18% B:0.31%) 44.99% (G:16.35% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 54.78% (G:12.09% B:1.05%) 55.01% (G:12.43% B:1.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.009 +0.650
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.547 (-0.103)±0.008 (+0.539..+0.555)
Redouble/Take:+0.650±0.011 (+0.639..+0.661)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.350)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 120
7 point match
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCBBA-A--b----bbcbcB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 43.06% (G:15.06% B:0.42%) 43.45% (G:15.51% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 56.94% (G:10.26% B:0.64%) 56.55% (G:11.31% B:1.19%)
Cubeless Equities -0.032 +0.559
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.492 (-0.066)±0.009 (+0.484..+0.501)
Redouble/Take:+0.559±0.011 (+0.548..+0.569)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.441)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBBCBA----b----bbcbcB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48.63% (G:19.95% B:0.13%) 48.57% (G:20.03% B:0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.37% (G:7.17% B:0.65%) 51.43% (G:6.70% B:0.59%)
Cubeless Equities +0.152 +0.930
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.569 (-0.362)±0.008 (+0.561..+0.577)
Redouble/Take:+0.930±0.009 (+0.921..+0.940)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.070)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aACCBBB-----b----bbcbcB---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 38.94% (G:12.33% B:0.12%) 38.71% (G:12.24% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 61.06% (G:10.21% B:0.54%) 61.29% (G:7.72% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities -0.151 +0.249
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.101 (-0.148)±0.006 (+0.095..+0.108)
Redouble/Take:+0.249±0.008 (+0.241..+0.258)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.751)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aACCBBB-----bA---bbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:31.88% B:0.11%) 67.20% (G:32.66% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:3.24% B:0.10%) 32.80% (G:3.12% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.698 +2.136
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.011±0.005 (+1.006..+1.016)
Redouble/Take:+2.136 (+1.125)±0.010 (+2.126..+2.145)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.011)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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