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Position of the day 5-29-23 - Rollout + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 12:06 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the day 5-29-23 (Stick)

While 6/3*(2) is going to be the first half of the play in most variations, what we do with the other two threes is largely dependent on the opponent's offensive position. Just a couple of variants.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBBAB---bAb--e-e---AB-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/7 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.345
	Player: Opponent: 62.31% (G:31.44% B:0.61%) 37.69% (G:6.65% B:0.38%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (+0.336...+0.355) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21 23/20 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.325 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 61.99% (G:30.53% B:0.42%) 38.01% (G:7.03% B:0.41%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (+0.316...+0.334) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/21 13/10 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.310 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 61.08% (G:31.93% B:0.51%) 38.92% (G:7.27% B:0.47%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.298...+0.322) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/18 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.307 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 61.66% (G:30.03% B:0.40%) 38.34% (G:7.90% B:0.58%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (+0.293...+0.321) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
5.	Rollout3	23/20 13/10 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.282 (-0.063)
	Player: Opponent: 60.10% (G:31.13% B:0.36%) 39.90% (G:7.59% B:0.47%) Conf.: ą 0.017 (+0.265...+0.300) - [0.0%] Duration: 42.3 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/18 13/7	eq: +0.108 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 55.63% (G:26.23% B:0.55%) 44.37% (G:9.81% B:0.58%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (+0.092...+0.125) - [0.0%] Duration: 44.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Variant 1

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBBAB---bAb-bd-d---AB-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/18 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.067
	Player: Opponent: 54.48% (G:25.07% B:0.27%) 45.52% (G:9.64% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.055...+0.079) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/7 6/3*(2)	eq: +0.025 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 52.81% (G:24.98% B:0.37%) 47.19% (G:8.56% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.012...+0.039) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

---

Variant 2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBBAB---bAb--d-db--AB-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/7	eq: -0.146
	Player: Opponent: 48.45% (G:18.33% B:0.23%) 51.55% (G:8.77% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.155...-0.138) - [93.1%] Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.156 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 48.71% (G:18.66% B:0.27%) 51.29% (G:10.40% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.164...-0.147) - [6.9%] Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/18 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.170 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 48.78% (G:18.65% B:0.28%) 51.22% (G:13.24% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.180...-0.160) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Variant 3

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBBAB---bAb--d-d--bAB-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/21 23/20 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.009
	Player: Opponent: 52.96% (G:22.73% B:0.34%) 47.04% (G:10.55% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.019...+0.001) - [79.3%] Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/7	eq: -0.017 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 52.74% (G:20.67% B:0.34%) 47.26% (G:8.72% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.026...-0.009) - [9.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.018 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 52.16% (G:24.48% B:0.37%) 47.84% (G:11.20% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.029...-0.007) - [9.7%] Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/7 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.022 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 52.17% (G:22.35% B:0.37%) 47.83% (G:10.26% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.032...-0.012) - [1.8%] Duration: 3 minutes 01 second
5.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 6/3*(2)	eq: -0.025 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 52.43% (G:20.59% B:0.27%) 47.57% (G:8.51% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.033...-0.017) - [0.2%] Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88367023 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the day 5-29-23
  Stick -- Tuesday, 30 May 2023, at 9:43 a.m.
  • Position of the day 5-29-23
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 30 May 2023, at 2:46 p.m.
  • Position of the day 5-29-23
    OpenWheel -- Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 4:12 a.m.
  • Position of the day 5-29-23
    Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 8:48 a.m.
    • Position of the day 5-29-23
      Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 11:53 a.m.
  • Position of the day 5-29-23 - Rollout + Analysis
    Stick -- Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 12:06 p.m.
    • Position of the day 5-29-23 - Rollout + Analysis
      OpenWheel -- Thursday, 1 June 2023, at 2:02 p.m.