[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 6-2-23 - Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 5 June 2023, at 10:05 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 6-2-23 (Stick)

I remember back in the day taking a cube or two I shouldn't have versus my opponent's perfect five point board when I had a man on the bar. Eventually I made adjustments and arrived at the point of almost never taking a cube in this scenario. That should be the baseline, just pass. Even here with the opponent having four men back, him having no more checkers really even near the zone to harass us should we enter quickly, us having a racing lead, and our offensive position is okay development and flexibility wise, it's a monster pass. There are plenty of exceptions to 'just drop it' but those become a lot more clear when you look for patterns every time you see this type of cube. In our current problem variant 1 would be the most obvious though making the bar point or even our two point should result in a take.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b--CbD-D---aC-----bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.88% (G:33.32% B:0.27%) 72.09% (G:33.88% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.12% (G:5.31% B:0.24%) 27.91% (G:5.32% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.718 +1.457
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.859 (-0.141)
Double/Take:+1.256 (+0.256)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Variant 1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b-BBbC-D---aC-----bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.96% (G:28.68% B:0.23%) 67.13% (G:30.14% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.04% (G:6.63% B:0.33%) 32.87% (G:7.04% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities +0.559 +1.147
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.741 (-0.147)±0.010 (+0.731..+0.751)
Double/Take:+0.888±0.022 (+0.866..+0.910)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.112)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30455221
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.