Here, I would have slotted 4/2. The value of this kind of move is something I learned from Peever's backgame quiz, which he first presented almost exactly ten years ago (Memorial Day, 2013), and posted to BGO in December 2013.
Michy considered slotting but ultimately decided that the opponent's board was too strong, and played bar/23* 18/16*(2) 16/14 instead.
Caveat: In real life, the position arose at 3-away/4-away, but when the score doesn't make a massive difference, I prefer to roll out positions for money. According to XGR++, the results at 3-away/4-away look pretty similar to the results for money. (For money, it's close to a double before the roll, but not quite there.)
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 171 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-cCDBB--------abBbbb-aAA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 24/22 18/16* 4/2 | eq: +0.927 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.56% (G:36.76% B:5.86%)
36.44% (G:5.72% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.914...+0.940) - [73.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 18/16*(2) 4/2 | eq: +0.921 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.15% (G:36.52% B:5.92%)
36.85% (G:5.65% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.906...+0.936) - [26.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 18/16* 16/14 4/2 | eq: +0.891 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.44% (G:36.72% B:6.03%)
37.56% (G:6.25% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.875...+0.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 24/22 18/16* 16/14 | eq: +0.863 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.74% (G:36.60% B:6.01%)
38.26% (G:5.36% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.846...+0.879) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 24/22 18/16*(2) | eq: +0.849 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.75% (G:36.13% B:5.95%)
38.25% (G:5.17% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.832...+0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 18/16*(2) 16/14 | eq: +0.811 (-0.117) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.78% (G:36.09% B:6.02%)
39.22% (G:5.65% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.795...+0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 18/16* 16/12 | eq: +0.778 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.60% (G:35.65% B:5.70%)
39.40% (G:5.97% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.762...+0.794) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release