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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 21 June 2023, at 3:39 a.m.

In Response To: Late game 33 to play (Timothy Chow)

XG prefers creating an ugly, inflexible stack on the 3pt to hitting. If this play seems obvious to you, take a look at the variant below, in which 7/4 7/1* is the DMP play, but suffers from massive cube inefficiency after a dance by White.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 84
Unlimited Game
pip: 96
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-CBBEB-----------ddc-abA:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/3(3)eq: +0.520
Player:
Opponent:		62.29% (G:3.72% B:0.10%)
37.71% (G:2.42% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.511...+0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.9 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 6/3 4/1*(2) eq: +0.394 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		57.64% (G:4.09% B:0.12%)
42.36% (G:1.89% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.387...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.9 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 7/4 7/1* eq: +0.353 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		57.87% (G:3.80% B:0.12%)
42.13% (G:6.11% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.349...+0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
Unlimited Game
pip: 96
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-CBBEB-----------ddd-aaA:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/3(3)eq: +0.558
Player:
Opponent:		63.95% (G:4.40% B:0.15%)
36.05% (G:3.49% B:0.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.553...+0.562) - [73.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 6/3 4/1*(2) eq: +0.556 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		63.58% (G:1.39% B:0.03%)
36.42% (G:1.80% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.552...+0.559) - [26.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
3.Rollout2Bar/22 7/4 7/1* eq: +0.514 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		65.34% (G:4.59% B:0.15%)
34.66% (G:4.96% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.509...+0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.2 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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