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Lost a Bet on This One (2a-4a Cube Action) [ROLLOUT and OTB]

Posted By: Ian Terry
Date: Sunday, 25 June 2023, at 4:48 a.m.

In Response To: Lost a Bet on This One (2a-4a Cube Action) (Ian Terry)





White is keen2learn

score: 5
pip: 114
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 3

Blue is FZX14
XGID=-a--BBCaBAA-bB-----cbbbbB-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.16% (G:14.79% B:1.34%) 50.14% (G:15.27% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.84% (G:22.70% B:8.24%) 49.86% (G:24.35% B:8.42%)
Cubeless Equities -0.230 +0.316
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.324±0.006 (+0.318..+0.330)
played Double/Take:+0.316 (-0.008)±0.006 (+0.310..+0.322)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.676)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.1%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 1 moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:96.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for it and won the match after misplaying a 51, opponent dance, 66.

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