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Rollout + variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 27 June 2023, at 11:56 a.m.

In Response To: 6-away/2-away cube (Timothy Chow)

As we've already been discussing, the bot verdict does not automatically tell us the best thing to do in practice. Nevertheless, I was surprised to see that XG thought this position was already a clear pass.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBC-A---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.05% (G:23.22% B:1.31%) 65.71% (G:23.56% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.95% (G:10.44% B:1.00%) 34.29% (G:10.91% B:1.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.392 +1.080
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.908 (-0.092)±0.012 (+0.897..+0.920)
Double/Take:+1.080 (+0.080)±0.017 (+1.064..+1.097)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 160
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBC----AcE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.00% (G:22.62% B:1.20%) 64.27% (G:23.13% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.00% (G:11.17% B:1.18%) 35.73% (G:11.62% B:1.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.352 +1.012
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.877 (-0.123)±0.010 (+0.868..+0.887)
Double/Take:+1.012 (+0.012)±0.012 (+1.000..+1.024)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:97.7%
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

5-away/2-away:





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBC-A---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.10% (G:23.05% B:1.35%) 65.57% (G:23.06% B:1.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.90% (G:10.31% B:1.11%) 34.43% (G:10.81% B:1.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.313 +0.992
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.861 (-0.131)±0.006 (+0.856..+0.867)
Double/Take:+0.992±0.008 (+0.984..+1.000)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.008)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:97.5%
Duration: 32 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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