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Correction

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 10:08 p.m.

In Response To: Correction (Dave Ranson)

The criterion you mentioned is when to avoid 11 shots. Here it is avoiding 4.

I think that risks and gains can be quantified here without needing to rely on rules of thumb. I see it as a cash after the 9 dances. White would need 12 crossovers, many of them long crossovers to our 10 or 11.

For the other rolls, after 4 off there are 15 shot numbers and 12 running numbers. After 6/2 there are 11 shot numbers and 16 running numbers.

How bad is changing 4 smallish racing numbers to shot numbers? I estimate 12% win chance after a shot and 72% after a race. So we 240%/36 in favor of safe play.

Comparing the other 12 racing numbers to each other, we have gone from odd to even to likely save a roll. A 5 or 4 next could negate it. Let's say we saved 5 pips. White's racing rolls will be without a 6. Let's say we save a pip on average. In a close race this short I figure this gives 15% better cubeless, which could be close to 20% because of cube. I will call it 200%/36 in favor of agrressive play.

On the other 11 shot hitting numbers we are in big trouble either way but having an extra checker off saves close to 4%. 44%/36 swing to aggressive play.

Aggressive play wins out. Now to check with bot.

Bob Koca

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