| |
BGonline.org Forums
Bot info included
Posted By: bob koca In Response To: More PFH bearoff fun (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 10:27 p.m.
1296 game WC rollout has safe play better by .027 even though it has aggressive play winning more cubeless.
4 ply confirms it is a cash after either play. The overage from these cube actions explains how the agrressive play is better cubeless though worse cubeful.
After a hit such as 46 the winning chances are 13.3% after the safe play and 18.4% after aggressive so my 4% swing guess was close.
After no hit and run (such as 9 pips) it is a bare pass after aggressive play and 70% cubeless with eq. .66 (so like 83% cubeless taking into account cube access) after safe play. So my close to 20% guess is close.
The big mistake is I underestimated the chances after running without a hit so there is a bigger swing on the 4 extra hits than I gave.
Bob Koca
Rollout of initial position:
1. Rollout 6/2(2) 4/off(2) Eq.: +0.340107
0.551355 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.448645 0.000000 0.000000 CL +0.102709 CF +0.340107
[0.000495 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000495 0.000000 0.000000 CL 0.000990 CF 0.001442]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826636110 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 6/2 4/off(3) Eq.: +0.313747 ( -0.026360)
0.561816 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.438184 0.000000 0.000000 CL +0.123632 CF +0.313747
[0.000408 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000408 0.000000 0.000000 CL 0.000815 CF 0.001073]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826636110 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.