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Bot info included

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 30 June 2008, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: Bot info included (bob koca)

The big mistake is I underestimated the chances after running without a hit so there is a bigger swing on the 4 extra hits than I gave.

I got the right play for the wrong reason. I thought the 5th checker off would not quite offset 4 extra shots, but it does, since the aggressive play wins more cubeless. The right reason for 6/2(2) 4/off(2), then, must be cube power. On 11/36 hits and 12/36 nonhitting entering numbers, the aggressive play must be somewhat better, with its one more checker off. On 9/36 fanning numbers, either play leads to double/pass. But on some fraction of the 4/36 fewer hits after the safer play, Blue wins outright with Double/Pass, or can make a nice Redouble/Take. On 6/2(2) 4/off(2) ... 51, for instance, Blue wins with Double/Pass on a position worth 79.8% cubeless.

At DMP 6/2 4/off(3) wins 56.48% (SD 0.01%), 6/2(2) 4/off(2) wins 55.51% (SD 0.01%) (Gnubg 2-ply "supremo" 15552 trial rollout).

Messages In This Thread

• More PFH bearoff fun
  Stick -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 5:47 p.m.
  • More PFH bearoff fun
    Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 7:52 p.m.
    • Correction
      Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 7:58 p.m.
      • Correction
        Dave Ranson -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 8:12 p.m.
        • Correction
          Dave Ranson -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 8:23 p.m.
          • Correction
            bob koca -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 10:08 p.m.
        • Safe ... safer
          Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 9:21 p.m.
  • Bot info included
    bob koca -- Sunday, 29 June 2008, at 10:27 p.m.
    • Bot info included
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 30 June 2008, at 5:06 a.m.
  • More PFH bearoff fun
    alex213 -- Monday, 30 June 2008, at 10:57 a.m.