Typically, if you're way behind in the pip count like this and you have a strong board, the loose hit is the way to go. But does the score matter? At gammon save, the decision would be somewhat close.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 64 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 95
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCCBCB--------B---bcdbc-:0:0:1:32:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/13 4/2* | eq: +0.433 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.32% (G:3.24% B:0.06%)
21.68% (G:6.67% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.430...+0.436) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/14 16/13 | eq: +0.416 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.29% (G:2.85% B:0.04%)
26.71% (G:2.49% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.414...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
But although the gammon values are somewhat lopsided at this score, it's not close to gammon save. The loose hit comes out way ahead in the rollout.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 64 | | 7 point match | pip: 95
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCCBCB--------B---bcdbc-:1:1:1:32:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/13 4/2* | eq: +0.638 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.77% (G:3.71% B:0.09%)
22.23% (G:7.13% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.634...+0.641) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/14 16/13 | eq: +0.540 (-0.097) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.86% (G:2.99% B:0.06%)
27.14% (G:2.50% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.537...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.6 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/3 4/2* | eq: +0.495 (-0.142) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.41% (G:3.66% B:0.11%)
27.59% (G:5.75% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.491...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
But there is one thing to be aware of ATS, which is that a hit and a dance is D/P, according to XG. An efficient recube while leading 3-away/7-away is something of a rarity, but this appears to be one such case.
 
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 66 | | 7 point match | pip: 90
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-ACBBCB-----A--A---bcdbc-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 90.66% (G:4.21% B:0.13%) | 91.67% (G:3.15% B:0.05%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 9.34% (G:0.81% B:0.01%) | 8.33% (G:1.01% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.834 | +1.355 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.932 (-0.068) | ±0.002 (+0.931..+0.934) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.073 (+0.073) | ±0.005 (+1.068..+1.078) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 10 minutes 15 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Finally, if White's board were closed, then the decision would be close even for money.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 70 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 95
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCCBCB--------B--bbcbbc-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/14 16/13 | eq: +0.406 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.91% (G:2.91% B:0.07%)
27.09% (G:3.65% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.404...+0.408) - [99.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/13 4/2* | eq: +0.402 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.32% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)
25.68% (G:10.46% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.399...+0.404) - [0.5%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release