I had this position a few days ago in an online match. It went R/T and that is correct. The leader won't get much value from owning a 4 cube ATS since the trailer's 8 cube tp in anything but a last roll of the game position will be ~8-9%. The trailer can be much more aggressive than normal in doubling if the leader will then have a dead or nearly dead cube. A good rule for the trailer at these kind of scores is to double or redouble if you have 3-4 market losers and are within 8% of the leader's tp. If you have more than a few market losers, you can turn the cube even if you're more than 8% away from the leader's tp. Here XG says the leader's tp is ~32% and he wins ~42% so you're more than 8% away from an efficient recube. However you have more than a few market losers: 66, 6-x and fan, the 6 numbers that cover the ace followed by a 6. There are a few anti-jokers of course but not enough to keep this from being a recube.
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| XGID=aABBBBBA--------AbbccbB-b-:1:1:1:00:1:6:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.74% (G:8.00% B:0.10%) | 58.90% (G:9.25% B:0.18%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.26% (G:7.62% B:0.37%) | 41.10% (G:12.43% B:1.51%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.175 | +0.628 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.538 (-0.040) | ±0.008 (+0.530..+0.546) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.578 | ±0.011 (+0.566..+0.589) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.422) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Remaining moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Large | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2