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Desperate times

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 19 July 2023, at 10:12 p.m.

In Response To: Desperate times (Jason Lee)

Play A: 2 to 1

Play B: 4 to 3.

No way to change your chance of off in 1 and opponent won't take more than 3 so it all comes down to maximizing chance you are off in two. Don't need to actually calculate probability for each, just which is better so look at swings.

11, 22, 21 transpose. 62, 52, 42, favor B by the exact same amount that 61, 51, 41 favor A. 32 favors B by 6 more rolls than 31 favors A.

It should now be clear that A is the better position. 65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 all favor A.

Messages In This Thread

• Desperate times
  Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 11 July 2023, at 10:50 a.m.
  • Desperate times
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 11 July 2023, at 12:10 p.m.
    • Desperate times
      Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 11 July 2023, at 2:23 p.m.
      • Desperate times
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 12 July 2023, at 1:17 a.m.
    • Desperate times
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 14 July 2023, at 9:05 p.m.
      • Desperate times
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 1:25 a.m.
        • Desperate times
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 2:11 a.m.
          • Desperate times
            OpenWheel -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 2:32 a.m.
          • Desperate times
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 12:06 p.m.
            • Desperate times
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 2:03 p.m.
              • Desperate times
                Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 July 2023, at 4:57 p.m.
          • Desperate times
            svilo -- Tuesday, 18 July 2023, at 12:40 p.m.
  • Desperate times
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 15 July 2023, at 1:05 p.m.
  • Desperate times
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 July 2023, at 10:12 p.m.