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Rollout: eXtremeGammon blunders!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 24 July 2023, at 11:37 a.m.

In Response To: I rolled 55 and XG danced! Now what? (Timothy Chow)

I asked myself, "Am I too good?" The answer is, against a weak opponent like eXtremeGammon, you can't be too good in this position because it might take. Indeed, I doubled and XG 3-ply took.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
7 point match
pip: 68
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aECBBaa----A----Bbccb-b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.38% (G:39.09% B:0.18%) 68.25% (G:39.65% B:0.62%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.62% (G:5.59% B:0.27%) 31.75% (G:5.04% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.726 +1.408
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.844 (-0.156)±0.007 (+0.837..+0.851)
Redouble/Take:+1.137 (+0.137)±0.013 (+1.124..+1.150)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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