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Rollout + explanation of "Stick's rule"

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 26 July 2023, at 12:21 p.m.

In Response To: What is "Stick's rule"? (Timothy Chow)

Stick explains "Stick's rule" here and you can read my addendum here. The present position is certainly gammonish and so I did not double. But XG thinks it's close to the take/pass borderline, so my addendum applies.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 102
7 point match
pip: 88
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaCBBBBBA----------bdbcbA-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.33% (G:22.43% B:0.76%) 78.82% (G:21.01% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.67% (G:2.35% B:0.09%) 21.18% (G:2.32% B:0.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.776 +1.395
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.838 (-0.162)±0.008 (+0.830..+0.846)
Double/Take:+1.055 (+0.055)±0.014 (+1.042..+1.069)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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