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Rollout, and what Bob Koca said

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 30 July 2023, at 11:52 a.m.

In Response To: I should have remembered what Bob Koca said (Timothy Chow)

XG says this is a clear take for money but a clear pass ATS.

I seem to recall (but currently cannot find) an old discussion here on BGOnline where Paul Weaver suggested a basic principle that if you're behind in the match score then you should be quicker to take action cubes like this one, but if you're ahead in the match score then you should be quicker to pass. Bob Koca pointed out that a common exception to this principle occurs at some scores when the leader is 4-away. For example, at 4a5a, 4a6a, and 4a7a, the leader's gammon value on a 2-cube is higher than the trailer's.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 146
7 point match
pip: 137
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDaB-AAbDA-bbbe------:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:18.16% B:0.97%) 70.79% (G:20.49% B:1.68%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.16% B:0.30%) 29.21% (G:5.98% B:0.51%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.597 +1.449
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.841 (-0.159)±0.006 (+0.835..+0.847)
Double/Take:+1.069 (+0.069)±0.011 (+1.059..+1.080)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDaB-AAbDA-bbbe------:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.68% (G:19.38% B:0.74%) 70.76% (G:20.21% B:0.78%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.32% (G:5.72% B:0.28%) 29.24% (G:5.93% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.555 +1.126
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.803 (-0.105)±0.006 (+0.798..+0.809)
Double/Take:+0.908±0.008 (+0.900..+0.916)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.092)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 36 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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