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Rollout (XG needs to read Stick's book)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 9 August 2023, at 1:00 p.m.

In Response To: Are you a holding game guru? (Timothy Chow)

This is a fairly standard D/T for money, and because there are very few gammons, the score doesn't make a huge difference to the cube decision. However, XG 3-ply doesn't double.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 91
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-CbCBB---cB-----bbbb-b-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.60% (G:4.41% B:0.03%) 75.64% (G:5.26% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.40% (G:2.01% B:0.05%) 24.36% (G:1.97% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.576 +1.635
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.729 (-0.119)±0.008 (+0.721..+0.737)
Double/Take:+0.848±0.013 (+0.835..+0.861)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.152)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

XG 3-ply:





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 91
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-CbCBB---cB-----bbbb-b-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.20% (G:2.86% B:0.02%) 75.21% (G:4.67% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.80% (G:1.82% B:0.02%) 24.79% (G:2.05% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.541 +1.614
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.861
Double/Take:+0.811 (-0.050)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.139)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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