If you're not ahead in the pip count, and your opponent has the better board and ample builders to attack, and dumping is not too ugly, then generally it's better to dump than to run. The rollout below confirms that verdict, but note that XG 3-ply runs.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 112
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B-AbCCBB--------b-dbcBb--:0:0:1:61:4:4:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/2 | eq: -0.488 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.75% (G:6.81% B:0.15%)
62.25% (G:10.87% B:0.60%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.498...-0.478) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/1 | eq: -0.573 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.13% (G:5.88% B:0.28%)
63.87% (G:11.64% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.583...-0.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/2 3/2 | eq: -0.637 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.98% (G:6.20% B:0.09%)
66.02% (G:12.00% B:1.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.649...-0.624) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/15 | eq: -0.654 (-0.166) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.23% (G:9.30% B:0.50%)
61.77% (G:25.20% B:1.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.669...-0.639) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG 3-ply:
| | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 112
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B-AbCCBB--------b-dbcBb--:0:0:1:61:4:4:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 22/15 | eq: -0.490 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.04% (G:8.06% B:0.20%)
60.96% (G:22.45% B:0.61%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 8/7 8/2 | eq: -0.491 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.68% (G:6.16% B:0.09%)
62.32% (G:9.73% B:0.17%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 7/6 7/1 | eq: -0.545 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.73% (G:4.96% B:0.09%)
63.27% (G:10.57% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 22/16 3/2 | eq: -0.568 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.87% (G:9.79% B:0.30%)
61.13% (G:24.35% B:0.75%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 8/2 3/2 | eq: -0.584 (-0.094) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.42% (G:5.25% B:0.08%)
65.58% (G:11.14% B:0.22%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 116
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--bCCCB--------b-dbcBb--:0:0:1:61:4:4:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/2 | eq: -0.535 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.23% (G:6.07% B:0.21%)
63.77% (G:9.89% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.541...-0.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16 7/6 | eq: -0.558 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.53% (G:9.44% B:0.68%)
60.47% (G:25.67% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.569...-0.547) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 22/15 | eq: -0.588 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.14% (G:7.60% B:0.36%)
60.86% (G:25.11% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.603...-0.573) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2