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Massive back game checker play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 11 August 2023, at 2:06 a.m.

In Response To: Massive back game checker play (Jason Lee)

This is the sort of position where I would generally not trust the rollout. Too many checkers back, too much crazy containment going on in the outfield—these are known confounding factors for XG.

One thing you can do, without even doing a rollout, is to see if the bot verdict changes a lot (both in terms of absolute equity and in terms of relative rankings of plays) when you ask for a 3-ply evaluation versus a 4-ply evaluation versus XGR+ versus XGR++, or if some moves that don't even make it through the move filter are substantially elevated in the ranking if you force them to be evaluated. If you get lots of fluctuations then you know that the bot doesn't understand the position.

As for the play, I think Frank's suggestion of 13/7 10/8 looks natural. It would certainly be the right idea if the opponent's checkers were stacked on her 23pt rather than her 24pt, because then it would force her to break anchor with a 6 (except 65), but even here, it's hard for me to believe that it's bad to make the 8pt.

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