Very interesting position! My first takeaway is that I underestimated the danger here of slotting while split. I should have been thinking in terms of making the 5pt and not splitting, versus making the 4pt and splitting. IMO, the variants below shed some light on the position.
          
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | | 11 point match | pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa-A-EBB---dC--abacb---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23 6/4 | eq: -0.018 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.71% (G:16.51% B:0.77%)
51.29% (G:14.82% B:0.66%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23 6/5(2) | eq: -0.058 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.09% (G:14.85% B:0.88%)
50.91% (G:16.96% B:0.93%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0.100 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.35% (G:15.59% B:0.90%)
52.65% (G:16.54% B:1.12%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
 
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152 | | 11 point match | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa-A-DBB---cD--abadb---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/4 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.20% (G:14.15% B:0.74%)
51.80% (G:19.44% B:0.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.125...-0.104) - [98.1%]
Duration: 12 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5(2) | eq: -0.132 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.62% (G:13.44% B:0.74%)
51.38% (G:21.62% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.144...-0.119) - [1.9%]
Duration: 14 minutes 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/24 6/5(2) 4/3 | eq: -0.167 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.01% (G:14.50% B:0.76%)
52.99% (G:19.99% B:1.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.183...-0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2