The subject line comes from the saying that backgammon is not a beauty contest.
I was playing against XG 3-ply here, and it chose the ugly but safe 7/2 6/1(3). However, if you do a rollout, or even if you just force an XG 3-ply evaluation of the top two plays, then 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1 comes out on top. If Blue plays 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1 and is hit right away, then his board is still strong and White's position is still relatively weak, so he has good chances of winning anyway. If Blue plays safe, then he still has work to do before he's home free, and his chances of surviving a hit later are lower because of the damage he's inflicted on his own position.
      
 
            
 | | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 181 | | 7 point match | pip: 75
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bBB-bDCBAA--c----bbb-b----:1:-1:1:55:2:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1 | eq: +1.391 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.64% (G:70.04% B:0.80%)
24.36% (G:3.30% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.380...+1.402) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/1(3) | eq: +1.293 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.71% (G:67.84% B:0.38%)
26.29% (G:2.96% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+1.282...+1.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG 3-ply:
| | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 181 | | 7 point match | pip: 75
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bBB-bDCBAA--c----bbb-b----:1:-1:1:55:2:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 7/2 6/1(3) | eq: +1.367 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.73% (G:68.70% B:0.29%)
24.27% (G:2.62% B:0.10%) | |
|
| 2. | 1-ply | 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1 | eq: +1.297 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.27% (G:67.16% B:0.71%)
25.73% (G:4.04% B:0.10%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG 3-ply, top two moves forced through the move filter:
| | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 181 | | 7 point match | pip: 75
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bBB-bDCBAA--c----bbb-b----:1:-1:1:55:2:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1 | eq: +1.389 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.99% (G:69.30% B:0.67%)
24.01% (G:3.94% B:0.11%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 7/2 6/1(3) | eq: +1.367 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.73% (G:68.70% B:0.29%)
24.27% (G:2.62% B:0.10%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2