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Rollout (XG needs to read Stick's book) -- Variant Pair

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 15 August 2023, at 12:50 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (XG needs to read Stick's book) (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 93
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-CbCB-B--cB-----bbbb-b-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.55% (G:3.69% B:0.03%) 74.82% (G:5.22% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.45% (G:2.06% B:0.05%) 25.18% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.541 +1.595
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.716 (-0.069)±0.007 (+0.708..+0.723)
Double/Take:+0.784±0.012 (+0.772..+0.796)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.216)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52870591
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

The position above is similar to Tim's original position. It's still a strong double.

In the position below, Black's 7pt has been backed up to his 8pt. According to the rollouts, this 2-pip change alters the cube action from Double by .069, to No Double by .117.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 95
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-CbC-BB--cB-----bbbb-b-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.77% (G:3.48% B:0.06%) 71.92% (G:4.43% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.23% (G:2.53% B:0.06%) 28.08% (G:2.53% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.478 +1.439
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.653±0.006 (+0.646..+0.659)
Double/Take:+0.536 (-0.117)±0.013 (+0.523..+0.549)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.347)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41852176
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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