I will ask questions later when the picture comes up and you chew it a bit

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I will ask questions later when the picture comes up and you chew it a bit

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 15 August 2023, at 1:55 a.m.

In Response To: I will ask questions later when the picture comes up and you chew it a bit (svilo)

These decisions can be tough, but I think that if you have at least 10% winning chances then it's worth playing for the win (by building your board) rather than desperately trying to run off the gammon. Below are a couple of variants.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 40

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---A-CE-BB---------bbcAbbA:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 6/4 eq: -1.291
Player:
Opponent: 9.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.76% (G:51.07% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.295...-1.288) - [74.7%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/7 eq: -1.293 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 8.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.85% (G:48.51% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.297...-1.289) - [25.3%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/6 eq: -1.299 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 7.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.82% (G:46.85% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.302...-1.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/22 5/3 eq: -1.313 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 8.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.43% (G:51.38% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.316...-1.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 39

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---A-CE-BB---------bcAbbbA:1:1:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 34

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/6 eq: -1.337
Player:
Opponent: 4.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.38% (G:44.50% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.340...-1.334) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27.5 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/5 eq: -1.359 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 4.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.18% (G:47.35% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.362...-1.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.6 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/3 eq: -1.392 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent: 5.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.18% (G:53.19% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.396...-1.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.8 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release