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DQ: How much risk to take? VARIANT rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 24 August 2023, at 1:51 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: How much risk to take? *RollOut* (leobueno)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 94 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 112 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbBC-C---bD-------bccc-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

(I've forgotten how to display the inner board on the right or have the white color at the bottom, if that's possible. Thus, Leo's position above is transposed in both senses compared to the way he posted it.)

Leo's original position is shown above. In his (1365-trial) rollout, 13/10 8/2 does best (by .026).

The variant below is identical except that White owns her 5pt instead of her 2pt. Here, 8/2 6/3 rolls out best (by .021).

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 112 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbBC-C---bD------cbc-c-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	8/2 6/3	eq: +0.026
	Player: Opponent: 57.37% (G:4.64% B:0.17%) 42.63% (G:2.47% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.023...+0.028) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 8/2	eq: +0.005 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 56.30% (G:8.73% B:0.28%) 43.70% (G:5.02% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.002...+0.008) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 8/5	eq: -0.006 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 56.30% (G:7.42% B:0.26%) 43.70% (G:5.05% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.009...-0.003) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 26 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 4300210 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• DQ: How much risk to take?
  leobueno -- Sunday, 20 August 2023, at 5:57 p.m.
  • DQ: How much risk to take?
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 20 August 2023, at 9:04 p.m.
    • DQ: How much risk to take?
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 August 2023, at 4:22 a.m.
      • DQ: How much risk to take?
        leobueno -- Monday, 21 August 2023, at 2:18 p.m.
        • DQ: How much risk to take?
          Jason Lee -- Monday, 21 August 2023, at 5:09 p.m.
  • DQ: How much risk to take?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 August 2023, at 4:16 a.m.
    • DQ: How much risk to take? *RollOut*
      leobueno -- Wednesday, 23 August 2023, at 7:10 p.m.
      • DQ: How much risk to take? *RollOut*
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 24 August 2023, at 12:03 a.m.
      • DQ: How much risk to take? VARIANT rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 24 August 2023, at 1:51 p.m.