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BGonline.org Forums
Local Tournament Match Cube Action
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Local Tournament Match Cube Action (Ian Terry)
Date: Monday, 18 September 2023, at 8:08 a.m.
The first thing I would do is to ask myself, what "standard" cube action is this position closest to? Each player has a blot in the outfield, which complicates matters, but suppose we advance both of those blots 5 pips, keeping the relative pip count the same. Then it's an ace-point holding game where White is down about 20 pips. That might sound like a clear pass for money, except that Blue doesn't have much of a board or a prime yet. I'd probably take, but I wouldn't be sure.
Now we have to correct for the blots. Does the extra contact favor Blue or White? I'd say it favors White. If you're White, the threat of getting hit might loom large in your mind, but again, Blue doesn't have much of a board or prime, so getting hit isn't necessarily game over. Since White is already the underdog, it's Blue who stands to lose more by getting hit. Although it might seem that Blue's checker is "nearly" escaped, being on the opponent's bar point gives White more counterplay than you might think. A bunch of Blue's non-hitting rolls don't safety that checker, and even the hitting rolls of 42 and 31 gives White a bunch of return shots. Thus I assess this position as a clear take for money.
Lastly, we have to adjust for the match score. White is quicker to pass as this score than for money, so now I'm not sure whether to take or to pass. There's not too much point doing a match equity calculation unless you think you can assess wins and gammons accurately enough for it to matter. For a "standard" position that might be possible, but I wouldn't be able to make those estimates very well here.
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