In Stick's original position, the double-hit wins in the rollout by .026.
If we move White's 8pt spare back to her midpoint, we get a different story. See rollout below.
Nack
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-BaBCBB---eB---bAcc-A---:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/13 6/3 | eq: +0.319 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.13% (G:21.98% B:0.90%)
34.87% (G:7.52% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.315...+0.322) - [74.1%]
Duration: 53 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/4* 6/1* | eq: +0.317 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.72% (G:36.92% B:0.77%)
38.28% (G:12.69% B:1.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.312...+0.321) - [25.9%]
Duration: 45 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 18/10 | eq: +0.270 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.63% (G:24.46% B:1.52%)
37.37% (G:8.69% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.261...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 18/13 7/4* | eq: +0.244 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.44% (G:29.78% B:1.33%)
39.56% (G:10.69% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.233...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 653903
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 653903
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10