It is a fairly rare occurrence to make a lower point when a higher point is available. Often times we'll see we can make the 4pt and leave a (much) better structure/distribution than if we make the 5pt but it's still the 5pt that comes out on top. Your default should really be making the better point unless there are some particular particulars in the position.
While hitting on the ace minimizes shots it does little else. It fails to make a new point which will not only be useful if we hit things later, but it's possible for us to fill in the 4pt and now all of a sudden our offensive position looks robust instead of janky. Not hitting on the ace point also forces the opponent to abandon his anchor on almost all of his hitting numbers which will leave us with 12 men in the zone and a two point board. Good things have been known to happen sometimes when that happens even if we are initially on the bar.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bEDC-A-b-b---acBb-b--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.101 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.33% (G:11.90% B:0.45%)
47.67% (G:7.75% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.082...+0.120) - [98.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.071 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.65% (G:11.28% B:0.42%)
48.35% (G:8.07% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.054...+0.088) - [1.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.022 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.04% (G:8.69% B:0.21%)
48.96% (G:7.84% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.007...+0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17205938
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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