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Blue to play 64 -- Position 2 and Variant -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 26 September 2023, at 11:42 p.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 64 -- Position 2 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--AcDb--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 2 (21$-32S-11e.52S-64)

1.	Rollout1	13/9 11/5*	eq: +0.258
	Player: Opponent: 55.24% (G:19.46% B:1.01%) 44.76% (G:13.20% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.251...+0.264) - [98.7%] Duration: 3 hours 54 minutes
2.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.248 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 54.41% (G:21.35% B:0.62%) 45.59% (G:12.10% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.242...+0.254) - [1.3%] Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.234 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 55.59% (G:15.61% B:0.67%) 44.41% (G:10.63% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.227...+0.241) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 653903 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 653903 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2, shown above, is the same as Position 1 (posted elsewhere), except Blue's second back checker is on the 23pt (instead of the 24pt). According to the comparative rollouts, H (Hit, 13/9 11/5*) is still better than K (Kill, 11/5*/1*) but by less than half the margin.

In the variant rolled out below, one of White's 6pt spares is back on her midpoint. Before scrolling down, ask yourself if you would change your play with 64 as Blue, and (if so) to what you change it.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--AdDb--c-d---AA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 2 variant

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.255
	Player: Opponent: 55.50% (G:16.84% B:0.65%) 44.50% (G:9.85% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.249...+0.260) - [86.9%] Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
2.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.250 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 54.01% (G:21.90% B:0.60%) 45.99% (G:10.96% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.243...+0.256) - [12.5%] Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/9 11/5*	eq: +0.242 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 54.34% (G:19.59% B:1.01%) 45.66% (G:12.08% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.232...+0.251) - [0.6%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16144168 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16144168 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10