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Blue to play 64 -- Position 3 - Variant and ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 27 September 2023, at 12:11 a.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 64 -- Position 3 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--AcDb--c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 3 (32S-22Y_52S-64)

1.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.281
	Player: Opponent: 55.20% (G:21.43% B:0.63%) 44.80% (G:11.64% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.273...+0.290) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/9 11/5*	eq: +0.251 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 55.04% (G:19.62% B:0.98%) 44.96% (G:13.20% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.242...+0.259) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.212 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 55.28% (G:15.09% B:0.71%) 44.72% (G:10.94% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.198...+0.226) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 47 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/18 22/18	eq: +0.209 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 54.90% (G:12.11% B:0.46%) 45.10% (G:8.58% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.194...+0.224) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 13 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2122 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2122 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In Position 1 (shown elsewhere), Blue's second back checker was (doubled up) on her 24pt, and H (Hit, 13/9 11/5*) clearly beat K (Kill, 11/5*/1*).

In Position 2 (also shown elsewhere), Blue's second back checker was on her 23pt. There, H still beat K, but it was very close.

In Position 3, shown above, Blue's second back checker is on her 22pt. This time, H is overturned, and K becomes the best play by a clear margin.

In the variant rolled out below, one of Blue's midpoint spares is covering his 11pt. Before scrolling down, ask yourself if you would change your play with 64 as Blue, and (if so) to what you change it.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--BcCb--c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 3 variant

1.	Rollout1	24/18 22/18	eq: +0.396
	Player: Opponent: 59.84% (G:13.57% B:0.56%) 40.16% (G:7.49% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.389...+0.403) - [96.4%] Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.386 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 57.14% (G:24.22% B:0.66%) 42.86% (G:11.32% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.377...+0.395) - [3.6%] Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 66965873 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Blue to play 64 -- Position 3
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 September 2023, at 5:27 a.m.
  • Blue to play 64 -- Position 3
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 September 2023, at 3:30 a.m.
    • Value of 18pt vs 20pt
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 25 September 2023, at 5:10 a.m.
      • Value of 18pt vs 20pt
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 September 2023, at 11:06 p.m.
  • Blue to play 64 -- Position 3 - Variant and ROLLOUTS
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 27 September 2023, at 12:11 a.m.