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Blue to play 64 -- Position 4 and Variant - ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 27 September 2023, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 64 -- Position 4 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--AcDb--c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 4

1.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.301
	Player: Opponent: 55.61% (G:21.65% B:0.61%) 44.39% (G:11.15% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.295...+0.307) - [99.8%] Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.289 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 56.88% (G:16.08% B:0.79%) 43.12% (G:10.24% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.284...+0.294) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
3.	Rollout2	21/11	eq: +0.287 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 57.43% (G:13.13% B:0.61%) 42.57% (G:9.76% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.280...+0.293) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.	Rollout2	13/9 11/5*	eq: +0.285 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 55.71% (G:20.01% B:1.08%) 44.29% (G:12.78% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.277...+0.293) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63289983 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63289983 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In Position 1 (shown elsewhere), Blue's second back checker was (doubled up) on her 24pt, and H (Hit, 13/9 11/5*) clearly beat K (Kill, 11/5*/1*).

In Position 2 (also shown elsewhere), Blue's second back checker was on her 23pt. There, H still beat K, but it was very close.

In Position 3 (also shown elsewhere), Blue's second back checker was on her 22pt. H was overturned, and K became the best play by a clear margin.

In Position 4, shown above, Blue's second back checker is on her 21pt. K is best again, and H is delegated to fourth place. The plays that leap into second and third place, P (making the 7pt) and p (covering the 11pt), are highly competitive.

In the variant rolled out below, one of White's 6pt spares is moved back to her midpoint. Before scrolling down, ask yourself if you would change your play with 64 as Blue, and (if so) to what you change it.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C--AdDb--c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Position 4 variant

1.	Rollout1	21/11	eq: +0.327
	Player: Opponent: 58.25% (G:14.13% B:0.64%) 41.75% (G:9.12% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.320...+0.334) - [99.3%] Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.312 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 57.05% (G:17.31% B:0.80%) 42.95% (G:9.31% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.304...+0.320) - [0.3%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
3.	Rollout1	11/5* 5/1*	eq: +0.311 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 55.40% (G:22.29% B:0.61%) 44.60% (G:10.24% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.302...+0.320) - [0.4%] Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
4.	Rollout2	13/9 11/5*	eq: +0.273 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 55.14% (G:20.05% B:1.14%) 44.86% (G:11.55% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.256...+0.290) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 11 seconds
5.	1-ply	24/20 11/5*	eq: +0.193 (-0.134)
	Player: Opponent: 54.42% (G:16.26% B:0.79%) 45.58% (G:9.91% B:0.44%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80906385 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80906385 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Blue to play 64 -- Position 4
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 September 2023, at 5:29 a.m.
  • Blue to play 64 -- Position 4
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 September 2023, at 3:31 a.m.
  • Blue to play 64 -- Position 4 and Variant - ROLLOUTS
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 27 September 2023, at 12:28 a.m.