When Blue's trailing point is back as far as the 20pt, he is motivated to prime White's straggler. When Black's trailing point is further advanced (both for race and connectivity reasons), he is more motivated to hit White's straggler (which becomes more akin to a goalkeeper) in order to get it "out of his hair."
The better Blue's running-home chances, the more content he is with playing behind White. This is a likely component of Blue's game plan when White enters higher up in Blue's board.
The following progression of rollout data shows the impact of advancing Blue's anchor. When it is on the...
a) 20pt: Making the 3pt crushes the hitting play by .098.
b) 17pt: Making the 3pt beats the hitting play by only .014.
c) 15pt: Hitting beats making the 3pt by .010 (overturn).
d) 13pt: Hitting crushes making the 3pt by .077.
Scroll down for rollout details.
[From the 15pt rollout ("c"), I omitted the best play because it is beside the point.]
Nack
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bEDC-A-b-b---acBb-b--:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue owns 20pt: The 3pt beats hitting by a lot |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.108 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.69% (G:11.83% B:0.44%)
47.31% (G:7.63% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.095...+0.121) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.067 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.62% (G:11.14% B:0.41%)
48.38% (G:8.05% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.054...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.010 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.89% (G:8.96% B:0.20%)
49.11% (G:7.89% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.003...+0.023) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8327410
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bEDC-A-b-b--Bac-b-b--:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue owns 17pt: The 3pt beats hitting by only a little |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.213 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.33% (G:13.07% B:0.54%)
43.67% (G:11.75% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.206...+0.220) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.199 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.79% (G:9.92% B:0.27%)
43.21% (G:10.87% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.193...+0.206) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.197 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.69% (G:13.24% B:0.57%)
44.31% (G:12.01% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.190...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8327410
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 122
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bEDC-A-b-bB--ac-b-b--:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue owns 15pt: Hitting beats the 3pt by a little |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.355 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.94% (G:9.63% B:0.24%)
39.06% (G:10.04% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.362) - [99.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.342 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.63% (G:13.79% B:0.62%)
40.37% (G:10.87% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.336...+0.349) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.333 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.25% (G:13.63% B:0.64%)
40.75% (G:11.06% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.327...+0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91502583
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bEDC-A-bBb---ac-b-b--:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue owns 13pt: Hitting beats the 3pt by a lot |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.557 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.30% (G:9.97% B:0.21%)
34.70% (G:8.85% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.544...+0.569) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.480 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.77% (G:13.63% B:0.62%)
37.23% (G:9.25% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.467...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.440 (-0.117) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.99% (G:13.08% B:0.64%)
38.01% (G:9.71% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.427...+0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24384997
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|