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Position of the Day 10-4-23 - Rollout Oops!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 6 October 2023, at 8:01 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-4-23 (Stick)

While I wouldn't go all in on XG's rollouts of backgames stock, I do believe it here in the ordering of plays. I think once we pick out what's going on 21/15 makes more sense than the default of *5.

First thing we have to realize is we're not playing a backgame. Even by definition we are not yet playing a backgame. One of my old adages on how to play backgames is "Don't." or "The first thing you should do when you're getting into a backgame is try to get out of it". While we are down in the race a bit it's certainly not enough to devote our selves to a backgame when the game is still soooo long and the opponent has four checkers back himself.

Next thing we need to internalize is how loosey goosey for no real purpose hitting on the 5pt is. It's like we're trying to play a backgame but again, those should mainly be last ditch options when it happens naturally by itself not something we try to force. By hitting 11/5* our opponent has 7, yes, just 7, rolls that are good for us. Otherwise he comes in and anchors up at the very least to the very worst where he hits/hits two/hits and anchors on our 5pt. This is not what we want.

Before this roll we actually have a decent structure. Sure, it's a little disconnected but we have new points and should be able to play without much pressure in the future as we'll hold the 20pt until we drown.

Coming out 21/15 makes good use of some duplication of 2s, 3s, and 4s for our opponent. Should he hit in his outfield he gives up his midpoint and in a game this long that is a real concession. If he attacks on his 4pt he'll be giving up his 7pt or 8pt to do so. In essence, barring some jokers, our blots on the other side of the board are pretty safe. By maintaining the status quo and not hitting we exert control over the entire board and should be able to tidy up some next turn in various ways and see which way the game goes without playing the overly committal *5.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 165 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 189 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-aBaB--BbB---bbcBBb--A:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 21/15	eq: -0.111
	Player: Opponent: 48.34% (G:12.39% B:0.62%) 51.66% (G:16.86% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.129...-0.092) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 11/5*	eq: -0.169 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 47.19% (G:13.14% B:0.68%) 52.81% (G:19.24% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.190...-0.148) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 51 seconds
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/7*	eq: -0.219 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 45.34% (G:11.45% B:0.56%) 54.66% (G:18.57% B:0.81%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 20/14	eq: -0.286 (-0.175)
	Player: Opponent: 44.49% (G:11.08% B:0.54%) 55.51% (G:19.77% B:1.05%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 8/2*	eq: -0.369 (-0.259)
	Player: Opponent: 42.18% (G:10.35% B:0.46%) 57.82% (G:21.27% B:0.97%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78696586 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 10-4-23
  Stick -- Thursday, 5 October 2023, at 2:48 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-4-23
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 5 October 2023, at 5:49 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-4-23
    rambiz -- Thursday, 5 October 2023, at 8:51 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-4-23
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 6 October 2023, at 2:55 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-4-23 - Rollout Oops!
    Stick -- Friday, 6 October 2023, at 8:01 p.m.