So during the live stream it was Jake Jacobs and Bill Riles doing the commentary. I didn't watch it live but again, you can still watch the match here. I rarely watch live backgammon but it is generally worth the price of admission for the commentary.
Jake (after doing his quick and accurate pip counting): Seems like despite him (MCG) having that formidable board, if he had the 4pt already it'd probably be a pass but since he doesn't own the 4pt already I'm thinking it's definitely a pass.
Bill: I gotta think he's gotta let it go here ...I will defer to Matt every time...
The rollout is below along with a rollout of Jake's hypothetical position where MCG already owns the 21pt anchor. In the original not being anchored is a big issue as not only could we be jokered or attacked immediately but every turn basically we risk that happening. One awful sequence and it's lights out and our board strength doesn't even matter. As we saw in the match itself, the opponent can roll awkward immediately even if it's not a shot leaving number and that greatly diminishes future attacking potential.
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| XGID=---BBBD-A---bB---cdd-AA-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.31% (G:12.56% B:0.18%) | 73.68% (G:12.89% B:0.19%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.69% (G:3.53% B:0.08%) | 26.32% (G:3.60% B:0.10%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.560 | +1.156 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.862 (-0.138) | ±0.006 (+0.856..+0.867) |
 Double/Take: | +1.008 (+0.008) | ±0.008 (+1.000..+1.016) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28061127 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 98.0% | |
| Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds | ||
Jake's variant
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| XGID=---BBBD-A---bB---cdd-B--b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.05% (G:2.22% B:0.04%) | 73.39% (G:2.06% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.95% (G:1.97% B:0.04%) | 26.61% (G:2.01% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.464 | +0.948 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.791 (-0.014) | ±0.011 (+0.780..+0.803) |
| Double/Take: | +0.806 | ±0.013 (+0.792..+0.819) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.194) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76449318 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 94.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds | ||