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Rollout Surprise - Next Deeznutts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 31 January 2007, at 7:54 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Jan. 30th (Stick)

If you don't see why the safe play is correct look at what happens the next couple moves in our OLM and you can see why it goes wrong too often. First of all there's 4 immediate shots and getting a 2nd checker sent back behind my 4 prime is a pretty big deal.

When I don't hit those 4 shots guess what? I hit the other guy some of the time and you may end up on the bar for a turn (or more if I'm lucky) and have another shot at your 2nd blot. I know it's easy for me to say retrospectively [I always get to look @ the rollouts before I open my mouth] but I actually felt it was wrong prerollout and was very surprised everyone 'next'ed' this.


Match to 25, White leads 12 to 10
174
135
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/21 8/5 0.249
0.9% 22.5% 61.8% 38.2% 7.8% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.245
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.388 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.245 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1944 games (equiv. 45164 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/21 13/10 0.230 (-0.019)
1.1% 22.9% 61.1% 38.9% 8.6% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.227
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.372 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.227 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1944 games (equiv. 41944 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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