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Position of the Day 10-6-23 - Rollout and VARIANT - the "why"

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 15 October 2023, at 8:54 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-6-23 - Rollout + (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD----bbbb-A-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Original position: Blue to play 11 against White's 7pt

1.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5(2)eq: -0.297
Player:
Opponent:
42.91% (G:11.13% B:0.53%)
57.09% (G:16.73% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.306...-0.288) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 23/22 6/5(2)eq: -0.321 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
42.93% (G:11.31% B:0.50%)
57.07% (G:18.52% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.329...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 26 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52333159
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

More than anything else, I think this has to do with putting back checkers on the point(s) from which they can escape. It explains why bar/23 is best in the original position above, and it explains why bar/23 is a whopper in the variant position below, where White owns her 8pt instead of her 7pt.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---b-bbb-A-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: Blue to play 11 against White's 8pt

1.Rollout1Bar/24 23/22 6/5(2)eq: -0.234
Player:
Opponent:
44.52% (G:12.13% B:0.56%)
55.48% (G:16.59% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.245...-0.223) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 11/10 6/5(2)eq: -0.257 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
43.95% (G:12.46% B:0.58%)
56.05% (G:17.99% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.269...-0.245) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/24 6/5(3)eq: -0.329 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
42.47% (G:11.97% B:0.59%)
57.53% (G:18.61% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.345...-0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/23 6/5(2)eq: -0.355 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
41.48% (G:11.16% B:0.53%)
58.52% (G:17.98% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.373...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 21 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92480829
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92480829
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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