So what was interesting to me about this problem was Bill said immediately "Bury it." (6/1) whereas Jake was adamant and immediately defended his play of paying off immediately with 13/8. I was with Jake on this one and hardly considered 6/1 which comes in a lot closer than I ever would have thought.
It's interesting to look at the opp's equity over the upcoming rolls (temperature map in GNU, dice distribution in XG) because the opp's six entering and hitting numbers sure do offset a lot of good that is done by paying now. I also may have overestimated the on roll player's ease of bringing this home therefore mentally assigning them a higher equity when we get away with it but truth is, if we play 13/8 and the opponent comes in and anchors there's still a lot of work to do. (it would be a close take in most scenarios if the cube wasn't already turned.
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| XGID=---BCCC-----bB---bbe-A-bbA:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 41 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: +0.418 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 | eq: +0.409 (-0.009) | |||
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| 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28061127 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||