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Variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 17 October 2023, at 12:07 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Super Jackpot Finals #2 (Checker) - Rollout + (Stick)

The rollout of the first variant below is not too surprising given the rollout of the original position, but is still worth noting IMO.

The second variant is slightly artificial, but shows what happens if the midpoint is harder to clear and if 13/8 leaves only 5 shots instead of 6.

The third variant pits the first two variants against each other and shows that 13/8 wins even if we give the opponent the best five-point board.

Variant 1:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
15 point match
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-BBBC-----bB---bbe-A-bbA:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:15:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout16/1eq: +0.377
Player:
Opponent:		69.75% (G:9.38% B:0.07%)
30.25% (G:3.50% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.371...+0.382) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
2.Rollout113/8eq: +0.352 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		69.22% (G:9.85% B:0.12%)
30.78% (G:3.21% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.348...+0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 2:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
15 point match
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCCC-----b--B-bbe-A-bbA:1:1:-1:14:0:0:0:15:10
Blue to play 14

1.Rollout113/8eq: +0.489
Player:
Opponent:		74.00% (G:12.83% B:0.17%)
26.00% (G:3.41% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.484...+0.494) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.405 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:		70.00% (G:13.63% B:0.08%)
30.00% (G:4.88% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.399...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 3:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
15 point match
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC-----b--B-bbe-A-bbA:1:1:-1:14:0:0:0:15:10
Blue to play 14

1.Rollout113/8eq: +0.393
Player:
Opponent:		70.01% (G:10.58% B:0.15%)
29.99% (G:3.59% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.388...+0.398) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.346 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		67.71% (G:11.10% B:0.08%)
32.29% (G:4.93% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.341...+0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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