Commentating Bill wanted to come in and play safe, 23, 7. I didn't include it in the rollout because it's a double whopper giving your opponent way too much freedom to bash away with his diversified rolls. Jake immediately liked the best (standard) play my three second play would have been 24, 4*.
Normally you hit off the higher point as the higher point is more valuable when you aren't hit back then you have the opp's checker(s) behind more of a structure and it's easier to attack them, generally speaking. Here if we play 23, 5* it's 17 direct shots whereas 24, 4* is only 13 direct shots. The number of direct shots has to play a big role on this play because our opp's board is so strong. Now it's hard to gauge the other numbers as if we leave fewer shots the opponent now anchors up with a five which is still good for him. Also, there's the story of when the opponent comes in and hits loose with either play it's better we're on the 24pt than the 23pt. Lastly, there's the fact that we would rather be on the 23pt to facilitate our escape when we are missed. Idk how to add that all up and come to the right conclusion.
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| XGID=a--BCCC-----AA---cbeAA-bb-:1:1:-1:21:0:0:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 21 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5* | eq: -0.444 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/4* | eq: -0.474 (-0.029) | |||
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| 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11832644 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||