Elsewhere in this thread, svilo posted a DMP rollout, but for completeness, here is a rollout of the original position, along with a variant where XG makes the "genius" play even at DMP.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 67 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CBBBB------bB-----cBbcad-:0:0:1:53:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 13/10 | eq: -0.298 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.11% (G:3.99% B:0.22%)
68.89% (G:12.77% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.301...-0.295) - [99.9%]
Duration: 20.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: -0.305 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.07% (G:2.69% B:0.12%)
67.93% (G:5.01% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.308...-0.302) - [0.1%]
Duration: 18.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant at DMP:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 62 | | 1 point match | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CBBBB------bB-----bBadbd-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 13/10 | eq: -0.323 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.86% (G:6.64% B:0.15%)
66.14% (G:16.28% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.326...-0.320) - [99.9%]
Duration: 19.3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: -0.329 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.56% (G:3.92% B:0.14%)
66.44% (G:6.62% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.331...-0.326) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2