In this position, XG 3-ply wants to hit and slot, but a rollout begs to differ. The safe and bold plays win about the same, but the bold play is more gammonish, which of course favors the trailer.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 90 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB----a-----cccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.642 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.72% (G:7.45% B:0.21%)
16.28% (G:2.85% B:0.11%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.605 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.42% (G:1.21% B:0.02%)
19.58% (G:0.29% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.600 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.16% (G:1.71% B:0.03%)
19.84% (G:0.33% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
4-ply/XGR+/Large rollout:
| | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 90 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB----a-----cccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.612 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.70% (G:1.07% B:0.05%)
19.30% (G:0.22% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.610...+0.613) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.589 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.66% (G:1.37% B:0.05%)
20.34% (G:0.42% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.587...+0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.540 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.67% (G:6.58% B:0.32%)
19.33% (G:6.45% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.535...+0.545) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money, it's a much closer call.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 77
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB----a-----cccbb--:1:-1:1:14:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.568 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.69% (G:0.97% B:0.02%)
19.31% (G:0.24% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.565...+0.570) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.557 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.57% (G:7.51% B:0.19%)
19.43% (G:6.45% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.551...+0.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.543 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.62% (G:1.07% B:0.02%)
20.38% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.540...+0.546) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
As Nack mentioned, the opponent's timing makes a big difference.
| | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 87 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB-------a--cccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.567 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.65% (G:5.87% B:0.29%)
18.35% (G:5.72% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.563...+0.571) - [99.9%]
Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.560 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.09% (G:1.27% B:0.04%)
21.91% (G:0.20% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.558...+0.561) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.538 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.10% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
22.90% (G:0.40% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.536...+0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Again, just for comparison, here's XG 3-ply's verdict:
| | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 87 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB-------a--cccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.672 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.97% (G:7.84% B:0.32%)
15.03% (G:2.40% B:0.10%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.558 (-0.114) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.03% (G:0.96% B:0.01%)
21.97% (G:0.29% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.547 (-0.125) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.54% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
22.46% (G:0.36% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 86 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB--------a-cccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.582 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.26% (G:5.95% B:0.25%)
17.74% (G:5.57% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.578...+0.586) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.547 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.46% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
22.54% (G:0.21% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.545...+0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.521 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.30% (G:0.95% B:0.06%)
23.70% (G:0.49% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.519...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 9
pip: 85 | | 15 point match | pip: 77
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aDBCBBB---------acccbb--:1:1:1:14:13:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 14 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/1 3/2* | eq: +0.610 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.26% (G:6.61% B:0.49%)
16.74% (G:4.82% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.606...+0.614) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/3 | eq: +0.525 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.38% (G:0.93% B:0.03%)
23.62% (G:0.21% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.524...+0.527) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: +0.502 (-0.109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.33% (G:0.85% B:0.00%)
24.67% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.500...+0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2