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Position of the Day 10-25-23 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 31 October 2023, at 10:35 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-25-23 (Stick)

XG Roller and XGR+ didn't even think this was a cube on their evals. One of my countless rules is it's damn hard to have a take when the opponent has the best five point board and you already have a man on the bar. (duh) The blotted ace alone usually isn't enough to swing it because the opponents covers are generally closer or your board is weaker etc... Here we have a combination of things that allows us to take.

It should be obvious but also noted that if that blot were picked up and put on any decent point in the opp's home board and he owned the cube it would be borderline too good.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 83
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BCBBaB-C-a-b------bbbbbaA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.89% (G:8.00% B:0.12%) 73.09% (G:8.69% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.11% (G:11.72% B:0.16%) 26.91% (G:11.24% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.400 +0.870
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.687 (-0.057)±0.011 (+0.677..+0.698)
Double/Take:+0.745±0.013 (+0.732..+0.757)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.255)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20094743
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds

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