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So many options - Rollout

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Monday, 6 November 2023, at 10:30 p.m.

In Response To: So many options (Sam Pottle)

Usually, having so many points outside with no spares is very inflexible.

And the "many options" could be buying some timing by reducing those many points from 3 to 2 and creating spares to play inside Blue homeboard. In order to wait for White leaving the 13pt before Blue might leave his 13pt. That kind of play is 10/9(2) 7/6(2), 10/8(2) or 8/7 8/6 2/1. But those plays are blunders.

The natural 7/5(2) in order to make the 5 pt and get a decent homeboard. Blunder as well.

The only valid play is 10/9(2) 6/5(2).





White is Joueur 2

score: 1
pip: 119
13 point match
pip: 96
score: 1

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-BC-b-BBB-B-bB---a-bcbba--:0:0:1:11:1:1:0:13:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout110/9(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0,602
Player:
Opponent:		66,64% (G:2,04% B:0,03%)
33,36% (G:3,68% B:0,06%)		Conf.: ± 0,010 (+0,593...+0,612) - [100,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout110/9(2) 7/6(2)eq: +0,509 (-0,093)
Player:
Opponent:		63,93% (G:2,73% B:0,05%)
36,07% (G:4,21% B:0,10%)		Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,500...+0,518) - [0,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout17/5(2)eq: +0,488 (-0,115)
Player:
Opponent:		63,70% (G:3,11% B:0,07%)
36,30% (G:5,00% B:0,12%)		Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,479...+0,497) - [0,0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds
4.4-ply10/8(2)eq: +0,367 (-0,235)
Player:
Opponent:		62,45% (G:2,22% B:0,02%)
37,55% (G:4,52% B:0,06%)
5.4-ply10/9(2) 8/7(2)eq: +0,340 (-0,263)
Player:
Opponent:		61,65% (G:2,41% B:0,02%)
38,35% (G:4,79% B:0,07%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

So the first priority is not the timing, but the number of safe landing spots.

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